Big-Box Boom: The Clues That Signal Your Community Is About To Grow

When a major big-box retailer opens its doors in a community, it’s typically more than just a new place to shop—it’s a signal. These chains follow rising consumer demand, so their arrival often points to population growth, new residential construction, and a housing market on the upswing.

"Big-box retailers typically target markets that are already experiencing population growth and are projected to continue expanding," says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com®.

"In that sense, new large-scale retail openings can reinforce growth by making the area more attractive to prospective buyers. Expanded retail amenities can help attract and retain residents, which in turn supports housing demand and, potentially, property values."

Florida real estate agent and investor Ron Myers of Ron Buys Florida Homes agrees, telling Realtor.com, "When big-box stores move in, it gives buyers confidence. It tells them the area is not slowing down, it is growing."

Home improvement stores are a good sign

New big-box home improvement stores, in particular, tend to align with a sizable and stable homeowner base.

"Their presence suggests there are enough owner-occupied homes to sustain demand for renovation, maintenance, and upgrade projects," says Jones. "In growing suburban markets, this can reflect both new construction activity and an established population investing in their homes."

In a recent earnings call, Home Depot EVP and CFO Richard McPhail revealed that the retailer plans to open about 15 stores in 2026.

He also said it added 12 stores in 2025—one of which opened in the World Commerce Center of St. Augustine, FL.

The median listing price there sits at $468,500, and homebuyers are finding an expanding selection of housing.

"The area is seeing a wave of new construction and master-planned communities, with easy access to I-95," says Myers. "There is still steady demand."

A bullseye for homeowners

Target is doubling down on brick-and-mortar, with plans to open more than 30 locations across the country in 2026.

This should be welcome news for nearby property owners, since homes located in the same ZIP code as a Target store experienced roughly 27% higher appreciation in sale prices, according to one 2015 study.

Last year, Target chose the Prasada area of Surprise, AZ, as one of its new store locations, landing in a city with a rapidly growing real estate market.

John Gluch, founder of the Gluch Group at eXp Realty in Arizona, tells Realtor.com, "People are tired of the Scottsdale/Gilbert prices and realizing they can get a brand new, 3,000-square-foot house in Prasada South for the price of a 40-year-old fixer-upper in Tempe."

The median listing price in Surprise is $439,950, compared with $1,100,000 in Scottsdale, $600,000 in Gilbert, and $497,000 in Tempe.

Gluch points to the surge of new stores like Target as a major draw. "Buyers love that everything is clean, planned, and literally five minutes away," he says. "If you’re a family or a lock-and-leave traveler, it’s hard to beat the value-to-lifestyle ratio we have here."

Big box, big gains

BJ's Wholesale Club is expanding its footprint with eight new locations planned for 2026—one of which is headed to Forney, TX, a booming suburb 20 miles east of Dallas that's quickly becoming one of the region's hottest growth corridors.

Real estate agent Evan Downey of eXp Realty tells Realtor.com that Forney's retail boom "makes daily life easier for residents, but it also tends to boost buyer confidence and help support home values over time."

He says Forney is one of the few areas near Dallas where buyers can still get a newer home at a more approachable price point.

The median listing price in Forney is $335,000, compared with $405,000 in Dallas-Fort Worth.

Forney stands out among Dallas suburbs, he says, because buyers can get more home for less money. And the wave of big-name retailers moving in—including BJ's, Home Depot, Target, and H-E-B—suggests the area has reached a critical mass.

"That’s usually a sign the area’s population has hit the level where major companies feel confident investing long term," says Downey.