Investment Banker Offers Up His $8 Million Bay Area Estate in Exchange for AI Stock

An investment banker who has worked with tech giants including Google, YouTube, and Uber is so eager to get his hands on some pre-IPO Anthropic stock that he is offering up his Bay Area compound in exchange for the coveted shares.

Storm Duncan, founder of the tech investment bank Ignatious, is willing to part with his sprawling four-bedroom, five-bath estate in Mill Valley, CA, in exchange for shares in the San Francisco artificial intelligence startup, which is reportedly preparing for an initial public offering later this year.

The company behind Claude, a popular AI assistant, Anthropic is reportedly in talks to raise funding at a valuation of nearly $1 trillion. However Duncan is using an $800 billion valuation for the company.

The 4,372-square-foot home, built in 2005, comes with sweeping views of San Francisco across the bay. It boasts an infinity pool, and open concept living, dining and chef's kitchen area with 180-degree views of the mountains.

According to automated valuation models on Realtor.com®, his house on Inez Place is worth about $4.8 million, but Duncan also owns an 11-acre parcel next door that he says is worth about $4 million. Both properties would be part of the deal.

Duncan believes the house, which he bought in 2019 for $4.5 million, would be an excellent exchange for an Anthropic employee who has plenty of illiquid shares and wants a luxury pad with a one-hour commute from Silicon Valley.

"If you're 25 or 30 years old, this is your second job, you have $10,000 savings in your bank account, and now all of a sudden you have $100 million of Anthropic stock—but you're living in a one-bedroom apartment," he tells Realtor.com. "So this would give them the opportunity to diversify out of just one asset, and it allows them to have a lifestyle more equivalent to what their current net worth is."

And because the company hasn't gone public yet, he says, "It's an opportunity for them to swap into another asset at a lower tax basis."

As for what's in it for him, Duncan says, "It's a diversification play for me, too. Less exposure to real estate, more exposure to AI. And I think Anthropic is demonstrating that it will have the most fundamental value."

"My thesis is that AI is going to suck the oxygen out of the white collar workforce," he warns. "If that is correct, then we're all in jeopardy. You, me, everybody, right? So, if that's right, then it's better to have equity upside in that. If I'm wrong, then the value of that asset [Anthropic] declines, and my career continues. It's kind of the perfect hedge in that regard."

He says he'd structure the deal so the final transfer of shares would happen after the lockup period. "I'm not going to pick a fight with Anthropic," he says. "I'm not going to try to do something not legally acceptable."

Duncan has not listed the property with an agency or even the multiple listing service but has a LinkedIn page for it. Interested parties can call or email. He says he has had some serious inquiries, but so far no sale.

It should be noted that the investment banker says he already owns about $1 million worth of Anthropic shares, but he clearly would like more.

While he says plenty of people have told him the proposal is "the most genius thing I've ever seen," he also admits the idea has its share of detractors. "There's those people online who say I shouldn't give up a piece of prime property for a bubble," he says.

Duncan was around for the dot-com crash in March 2000 but he says he's not worried. Even if there's a repeat, he notes that the companies that survived "turned out to be the most valuable companies in history."

"I'm not a 23-year-old person who has never been through the ups and downs of the world. I've been through three bubbles and several recessions," he says. "If you're trying to make investment decisions, you have to look beyond both crashes and bubbles."

The future of real estate ... or no?

Should a valuable brick and mortar asset ever be exchanged for more ephemeral pre-IPO stock—even if it is one of the most highly valued and hotly anticipated IPOs of all time?

"My initial thought is that [the deal] is reminiscent of the 2000s prior to the dot-com bust," Nathan Moeder, principal at London Moeder real estate advisers, tells Realtor.com. "In lieu of lease payments, landlords allowed building rent to be $0 in exchange for shares in a company’s stock. Companies went bankrupt, and then the landlord was left with a building with no rent."

But Moeder says there appears to be little danger of Duncan going bust on a bad AI bet. "For this owner, it is an investment strategy and a bet he is willing to take," he says.

Indeed, if the shares tank, Duncan has two other homes in his portfolio: One in Miami and another in Jackson Hole, WY.

Orange County, CA, Coldwell Banker agent Cara Ameer suspects that the person with the Anthropic shares holds the bargaining chip.

"With Anthropic's shares on the rise and poised to be worth substantially more going forward as they are still privately held, a house worth around the $5 million range may not be a fair deal," she says. "Real estate won’t appreciate as fast as the shares will, and whomever takes the house in exchange for giving up the shares could be losing more than they are gaining."

Douglas Elliman agent Christine Krenos in Napa Valley, CA, says that while these types of deals could be "the future of property exchange," she acknowledges that they could also be hard sales given how personal taste in homes can be.

"My concern is finding the alignment—the perfect match. When I read the post I thought, even if I had a buyer wanting to dump Anthropic equity, is that home an asset she would want to hold? Maybe if it’s a commercial investment play ... but homes are specific. The stars would need to align perfectly, which is possible, but not probable."

Duncan admits that he may not find the perfect buyer who also happens to be sitting on millions of dollars worth of Anthropic shares, but it's worth a try. And it's not like he needs to sell.

"I'd say it's a less than 50% chance that something happens," he says. "A home is a very emotional purchase."