Mortgage Rates in a Holding Pattern as Spring Buying Season Nears

There’s been plenty of noise this week—a government shutdown, delayed data, and financial and political drama—but mortgage rates have remained remarkably steady. 

This week’s partial government shutdown has been resolved, but the January jobs data that should have been released on Friday has been pushed back. We will have to wait for it. Indications from private data suggest that it could be a relatively weak report, but we’ll have another update before the Federal Reserve's mid-March meeting, if data is released on schedule. Put simply, it’s an important input, but it won’t be the last word on the economy’s condition before the next Fed meeting.

In the past week, President Donald Trump nominated his successor to Jerome Powell’s Fed chairmanship: Kevin Warsh. Although Warsh served as a Fed governor from 2006–11, he may face a drawn-out confirmation process as some senators have indicated they do not want to move forward until Department of Justice investigations into Powell—which are seen by some as a threat to the Fed’s monetary policy independence—have ended.

Despite the political drama, mortgage rates were essentially unchanged, ticking up just 1 basis point. For the past six weeks, mortgage rates have hovered in a narrow 10 basis-point range just above 6%, a favorable spot for aspiring homebuyers and sellers alike as the spring buying season approaches.  

In addition to decent mortgage news, we saw an uptick in the U.S. homeownership rate overall and for those under age 35, even as the rate slipped for households aged 35 to 44. This report also showed steady to slightly higher vacancy rates for both homeowners and renters, bringing back some much-needed slack that is likely to stem price pressure in the housing market. 

Consistent with that, the number of for-sale homes rose for a 27th month in January, according to the Realtor.com® January Housing Trends report. However, the pace of recovery relative to pre-pandemic norms lost some steam. 

Newly listed homes changed little over the prior-year pace as listing prices flattened, a possible sign of more modest expectations from sellers. The median list price in January 2026 was $399,900, down 0.1% from a year ago. Home listings spent a median of 78 days on the market—that’s up five days more than the same time last year.

At the same time, data suggests a bit of a pickup in buyer activity, and the next few months will test whether the market remains balanced or shifts more meaningfully.

Looking at Realtor.com weekly housing data, the clearest trend is the impact of last week’s snowstorm. New listings dropped sharply as snow and ice, freezing conditions, and power outages affected much of the nation. I expect to see a bounce-back in the weeks ahead, but it’s worth keeping in mind that we could see similar storm effects in the January closed-sales data that the National Association of Realtors® will soon report.  

Turning from a literal freeze to a metaphoric one, rents rose in New York City, continuing a trend that helped usher in the Zohran Mamdani era, according to the latest Realtor.com New York City Rental Report. Already, rent-stabilized units mean New York renters are less likely to move, limiting mobility and dynamism in housing. A freeze could exacerbate this trend, leaving renters stuck.

Finally, we have two very topical luxury market showdowns. The first report features a comparison of Charleston, SC, and Savannah, GA, markets full of Southern charm and historic architecture that have me dreaming about spring break. 

The second report examines high-end real estate in Super Bowl–contender cities, Seattle and Boston, highlighting surprising commonalities and differences. It might not help you predict who will win, but it could help you decide whom to root for on Sunday if you don't already have a team.