Spring Housing Market Defies the Odds as Contract Signings Hit 4-Year High: These Midwest Markets Lead the Way

Despite economic uncertainty and the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the spring housing market continues to gain surprising traction, buoyed by a surge in fresh listings and contract signings.  

Economists at Realtor.com® analyzed housing data from the first four months of 2026 to gauge the state of the market as it enters the final days of spring, outlining their findings in a new progress report.  

The results are promising, at least when compared with the past three years of historically low activity in the housing market. And the nascent recovery is strongest in five Midwestern (or Midwestern-adjacent) markets, led by Kansas City, MO.

Researchers zeroed in on two metrics to measure market activity: new listings, which reflect sellers putting homes on the market, and contract signings, which mark the first formal step in the homebuying process and typically lead closings by one to two months. 

Unlike the past three spring seasons—which failed to deliver a market awakening, most recently due to 2025's higher-than-expected mortgage rates and tariff-driven volatility—the 2026 spring market is finally showing some signs of movement.

Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel defines an active, dynamic market as one where new listings are met by contract signings, separating it from resilient but stagnant markets where buyers remain sidelined.

Spring (market) awakening

Judging by these criteria, the 2026 spring market is picking up speed, with both new listings and contract signings climbing to their highest levels since 2022. 

Because homes that go under contract today typically close in four to six weeks, signings foreshadow future existing-home sales. Based on the current data, Krimmel anticipates a meaningful spike in closings in May and June—something the market has been waiting on for nearly three years.

Nationally, the supply of fresh for-sale properties so far this year is up 1.1% compared to 2025—and up 22% versus 2023. 

Meanwhile, contract signings are up 2.9% year over year and 4.1% compared to 2023.   

Krimmel points out that this marks a break from the past two springs, when buyer hesitancy kept signings flat and subdued.

"This spring looks different, or at least more promising so far," says Krimmel. "For the first time since that reset, 2026 signings are running consistently above the prior three-year cluster, not necessarily by a dramatic margin, but at a clip that has been slightly widening as the year has progressed."

A similar picture also emerges at the regional level, with new listings up compared to 2025 in every part of the U.S., but especially in the Midwest.

Meanwhile, contract signings so far this year are up everywhere except the Northeast, likely due to the winter storms that walloped the region at the start of 2026.

A zoomed-in look at signings and new listings across the 50 largest U.S. metros highlights the local markets leading the year-over-year recovery.

Midwestern markets lead the way

In all, 34 of the top metros have had more signings so far in 2026 compared to the first four months of 2025, and 31 have seen more new listings.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, metros in the relatively affordable and in-demand Midwest have experienced the strongest rebound this spring, led by Kansas City, MO, where new listings and contract signs were up 12.5% and 20.7%, respectively, year over year. It was followed by Louisville, KY (+13.6%, +18.9%), Indianapolis (+14.7%, +6.6%), Columbus, OH (+8.0%, +7.9%), and Cincinnati (+10.8%, +4.7%).

"These markets combine relatively affordable price points, improving inventory, and buyers who are actually showing up,” says Krimmel. 

Other markets such as Phoenix, Austin, TX, and Jacksonville, FL, are lagging in new listings yet boast strong gains in contract signings. Krimmel attributes this divergence to softer initial pricing, which attracts buyers despite a lack of fresh options.

"We have definitely seen an increase in contract activity this spring across many parts of the Phoenix market," Gordon Hageman, a real estate agent with Arizona 1 Real Estate, tells Realtor.com. "On several of our recent listings, we experienced multiple-offer situations again, which is something we had not consistently seen over the past year."

Addressing Phoenix's subdued inventory growth, Hageman says many homeowners remain hesitant to sell because they are locked into historically low COVID-19 pandemic-era mortgage rates.

"A homeowner with a 2.5% or 3% interest rate may be reluctant to give that up unless they truly need to move," adds the agent. "That 'lock-in effect' continues to limit the number of new listings entering the market."

On the other side of the spectrum, metros such as Tampa, FL, Las Vegas, and Hartford, CT, have missed out on the early spring momentum, with both new listings and contract signings down across the board, due to either low demand or low supply.

This begs the question: Why are some markets seeing robust activity this spring, while others are left out in the cold? Krimmel argues that, in part, it comes down to sellers' expectations.

Why strategic pricing is key

Housing data shows that metros where asking prices are falling the most are also the markets seeing the fewest price cuts relative to last year. According to Krimmel, this means that sellers have wised up and are now pricing more strategically and realistically from the outset to draw more buyers at listing time, rather than scrambling to slash prices in a panic later on.

For instance, Austin has seen asking prices per square foot drop nearly 8% year over year—the steepest decline among the top 50 metros—yet price cut share is down 2.3 percentage points.

Similarly, in Jacksonville, where prices dipped 2.4%, price cuts shrank by 5 percentage points, while in Phoenix, the median price per square foot retreated 1.7% as the share of price reductions decreased by 2.2 percentage points from a year ago.

Notably, these are the same markets where contract signings are rising despite stagnant new supply, proving that realistic initial pricing can pique buyers' interest even without a wave of fresh inventory.

"Homes that are priced appropriately from the start, located in desirable neighborhoods, and presented in good condition are still attracting strong buyer attention and moving successfully," says Hageman. "Sellers who understand current market conditions and price accordingly are putting themselves in a much stronger position to succeed."

On the other hand, sellers who are trying to "test the market" with aggressive pricing are typically the ones struggling with longer wait times and repeated price cuts, he explains.

"Buyers today are far more selective and value-conscious than they were during the ultracompetitive pandemic years," adds Hageman.

Spring 2026 at a crossroads

Still, the U.S. housing market is not out of the woods yet. The next two months will be critical in determining whether spring 2026 represents a true recovery or another false start.

Krimmel outlines two distinct paths for the market. In the best-case scenario, a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East would inject stability into the economy, allowing mortgage rates to retreat and consumer confidence to rebound.

The worst-case scenario would see rates climb, inflation heat up, and the geopolitical uncertainty drag down spring sales.

"The path to an unstuck market runs through buyer activity. And so far, the housing market has beaten low expectations this spring, leaving us cautiously optimistic about sales in the key volume months of May and June," says Krimmel.

Ultimately, the market requires a balanced, dynamic rhythm of new listings and contract signings. Early 2026 data suggests the right conditions are already falling into place—with more realistic initial pricing emerging as the key to unlocking the market.