Why Reading the Housing Market ‘Tea Leaves’ Is So Tricky for Buyers and Sellers This Spring

Spring is finally here! And with it, one housing question is top of mind: After several slow, unaffordable years, is this finally when the market rebounds?

The tea leaves are really hard to read right now. Let me run through the housing outlook—from macro to micro—to explain why. 

Let’s start with the macro picture: The war in Iran has injected a whole lot of uncertainty into the economy. Gas prices are up, and markets are rattled. As a result, mortgage rates spiked again this week to 6.22%—their highest in 2026. 

Also this week, the Federal Reserve held rates steady for the second straight time. There’s real concern that inflation could reignite even as the job market is slowing. So for now, the Fed is back in wait-and-see mode. 

But through all this uncertainty, here’s some context that matters for the housing market: Even after three weeks of increases, mortgage rates are still 45 basis points lower than this time last year. And they’re still at their lowest March level since 2022. That can translate into real savings for buyers compared to years past. 

Affordability is better than a year ago, but the macro picture is much shakier than a month ago. 

Now, what does the housing market actually look like on the ground? Two pieces of home sales data this week. And yes, they’re backward-looking, but they’re an important setup for everything coming down the pike. 

New-home sales struggled in January—down double digits year over year, with prices down nearly 7%. Winter weather played a role, but weak buyer demand did, too. 

February's pending sales told a more hopeful story: Contract signings bounced back as rates dipped last month. This will be one to watch going forward.

The inventory picture is the most encouraging part of the story for buyers. Active listings are up 5.6% year over year, and median list prices have fallen more than 2% for eight straight weeks. 

On a per-square-foot basis, asking prices fell 2.6%—the lowest since we started tracking in 2017.

Renters are catching a break, too. National median asking rents hit a four-year low in February, according to the Realtor.com® Rent Report.

For homebuyers and renters, overall affordability is quietly improving bit by bit. 

Which brings us to home sellers. If you've been waiting for the right moment, our Realtor.com Best Time To Sell report points to April 12–18 as this year's best time to sell. Why? Motivated buyers, fewer new listings to compete with, and historically strong outcomes. But that “Goldilocks” window varies by metro, so check out the full report to see when your market will peak.

So what’s the bottom line this spring?

Fundamentals for buyers are the best they have been in years: lower rates, more inventory, and softer prices. But the macro backdrop—economic uncertainty, inflation rising, the Fed at a crossroads—is complicating the picture.

For buyers on the sidelines, this spring may be the best entry point in years. Just don't wait for the fog to clear—because it might not.