Housing Week Ahead: Home Sales, Luxury Trends, and New Inflation Data

The coming week will bring a steady stream of housing market indicators, as well as new reports from the Realtor.com economics team.

On Wednesday, senior economist Anthony Smith will have a look at the latest pricing trends in the luxury market with the September Monthly Luxury Report.

On Thursday, senior economist Jiayi Xu will publish our September Rent Report, and we’ll see whether the long-running declines in U.S. rents continued. Also on Thursday, Anthony will return with a look at the most recent weekly trends in the housing market.

There are a few key indicators to watch this week. On Tuesday, we’ll see September existing-home sales from the National Association of Realtors®.

Last month, existing-home sales dropped below a pace of 4 million for the first time in 14 months as higher mortgage rates eroded buyer purchasing power.

Since then, mortgage rates have risen even higher, so I’m not expecting a strong reading. I expect to see a decline in sales volume from both August and a year ago.

I'll also have an eye on prices. Last month’s median home sales price growth was the smallest in four months, and in September, Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel found a rising share of price cuts among homes listed for sale.

On Wednesday, the Labor Department will release the consumer price index data for September. I'm expecting annual headline inflation to tick higher from August's reading of 3.4%, driven largely by an increase in gas prices.

Despite the expected inflation uptick, markets are placing only an outside chance of a rate hike at the October Federal Reserve meeting, with more investors positioned for a December increase. 

On Thursday, Freddie Mac will release the latest weekly average for mortgage rates. Last week was another doozy, with rates up 12 basis points and hitting a new three-year high of 7.40%.

However, we saw some relief in the bond market late last week, with the 10-year Treasury yield edging back closer to 5.2% than 5.3%. If that’s sustained, I’d expect that mortgage rates will remain near 7.5% this week.

As I’ve highlighted, the national "Best Week To Buy" was a few weeks ago, but favorable timing for buyers can vary between markets.

This week, seasonal conditions are peaking in favor of buyers in five markets spread from coast to coast: Baltimore, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington, DC.

For full reports, the Market Clock, and raw housing data, visit realtor.com/research.