The Old Farmer’s Almanac Fall 2026 Outlook: Is Your Property Ready for El Niño?

With all the talk of the Super El Niño developing this year and affecting the upcoming winter months, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has a more pleasant outlook for the fall season. 

The fall 2026 forecast reveals a distinct national split: a warm interior wrapped in cooler coastal weather, alongside drier-than-average conditions for most of the United States.

This is welcomed news for homeowners, as it sets the stage for a calm interlude before a potentially brutal winter. 

The fall forecast for the the United States

For most of the country, the weather will be warmer than usual.

In places like the Heartland, High Plains, Deep South, or Texas, expect summerlike warmth to linger well into October. While the High Plains stay dry, Texas and Oklahoma are forecast to receive up to 4 inches of above-average rainfall.

Meanwhile, cooler-than-average temperatures will settle over the Northeast, Atlantic Corridor, Appalachians, Southeast, and Pacific Coast. The Pacific Northwest and Northeast also face wetter-than-normal weather.

As for the Upper Midwest, Lower Lakes, and Desert Southwest, these areas face transitional conditions, opening with a cooler September before October warms up or shifts.

How to prepare for the changing seasons

Like spring, fall is a time of year when most homeowners prioritize essential home maintenance—and rightfully so. 

With cooler temperatures, autumn allows for necessary outdoor work that is laborious to not feel as debilitating.  

Homeowners expecting a wetter season should start by inspecting roofs, gutters, and yard drainage to prevent storm-related issues and claims that could rack up.

Keep pathways clear of slick, fallen leaves, clean gutters promptly, and seal windows to avoid drafty rooms that could eat up your electricity bill.

Those expecting the heaviest rain, like Texas, Florida, and the Pacific Northwest, could also benefit from giving their foundation a checkup. Upper Midwest homeowners should also test heating systems during September’s early chill before October’s heavier rainfall arrives.

Fall is usually the time when homeowners also typically prep for hurricane season and the winter months. The topic of a Super El Niño is top of mind this year as forecasters are predicting a particularly strong system. While El Niño can heighten hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific and suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic, it can also result in more intense winters. 

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate Prediction Center recently shared that El Niño has a 97% chance of lasting into early spring 2027, with an 81% chance of becoming “very strong” from October to December.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources told USAToday that “some of California’s wettest winters have occurred during some of the strongest El Niños," adding that “more intense and more frequent winter storms” could be headed to the interior southwest and the southern tier of states.

While an intense El Niño doesn't guarantee a heavy snow season, NOAA has cautioned that “stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds toward expected seasonal outcomes.”

Therefore, using the fall months to prepare for the winter is advised. 

Aside from a heating system, inspection, stocking up on emergency supplies, and testing your backup generator, it’s also a good idea to have your chimney cleaned and checked, replace your smoke detectors, and check your walkways for any cracks that could become slip hazards.