Find Out If Your Monthly Housing Payment Will Rise or Fall in the Top 50 Metros

The new year promises to deliver improved affordability, steadier mortgage rates, and more for-sale options for buyers as the housing market slowly recovers from 2025's turbulence—but how much homeowners ultimately pay each month will vary widely depending on location.

Here’s the big picture: Nationally, the Realtor.com® 2026 housing forecast predicts that mortgage rates will average 6.3% across the new year, down from the 6.6% full-year average expected for 2025, while home prices will rise 2.2% year over year. 

However, location plays a defining role in real estate, and no two housing markets are alike.

With that in mind, researchers at Realtor.com compared the monthly principal and interest payments in 2025 with projected payments in 2026 across the 50 largest U.S. metros to determine where homeowners can expect higher housing costs and where they will see savings.

For the 2025 payment estimate, economists assumed a 6.6% mortgage rate, the year-to-date average sales price in the given metro, and a 15% down payment. To calculate the 2026 payment, they used the forecasted 2026 price growth to predict a sales price, and assumed a 6.3% mortgage rate and a 15% down payment.

Realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones explains that with home loan rates poised to ease on average next year, household buying power is slated to get a boost, but in more than one-third of the top 50 metros, home price growth is expected to outpace the mortgage rate improvement, resulting in rising monthly housing payments.

On the other side of the equation, in markets where home prices are projected to go up 3% or less, decreasing mortgage rates will help curb monthly housing costs.

"At the national level, and in many of the country's largest metros, homebuyers could see their dollar go a bit further in 2026 compared to 2025," says Jones.

Rising and falling housing costs across metros

The data analysis reveals that more than half of America's biggest housing markets (31) will likely be more affordable in 2026, with monthly savings ranging from as little as 0.08% ($1.05) year over year in Cincinnati to as much as 6.67% ($162.51) in Raleigh, NC.  

In other words, the typical homeowner in Raleigh should expect to pay roughly $162 less per month for housing in 2026 than in 2025.

Homebuyers and homeowners in the remaining 19 major metros should expect to spend more on housing each month, with the premium depending on the location.

Louisville, KY, is slated to see a year-over-year increase of just 0.31% ($4.86), while Hartford, CT, will see the highest surge in payments across the top 50 metros, reaching 6.12% ($121). 

"The markets that will see the highest and lowest monthly payments are the markets that are expected to see the greatest and least price growth," says Jones. "Put differently, Raleigh is expected to see the biggest price decline among the 50 largest markets, and Hartford is expected to see the most significant price growth year over year."

According to the forecast, home prices in Raleigh are set to drop 3.7% on an annual basis in 2026 to $431,690, the result of growing inventory. The new typical monthly payment in Raleigh is expected to be $2,271.

On the other hand, Hartford is poised to see the median home price climb 9.5%, reaching $398,783. This is the result of scarce inventory fueling competition and putting upward pressure on prices, causing the median monthly payment to go up to $2,098.

Hartford sees surging prices

It should come as no surprise that Hartford is set to see the biggest year-over-year increase in monthly payments among the top metros, considering that it is set to experience the highest growth of more than 17% in 2026, driven by a combination of rising home sales and price gains, according to a new report from Realtor.com.

Carl Lantz, a West Hartford-based real estate agent at Coldwell Banker Realty, says that the metro's price growth is fueled by a "severe" lack of inventory caused by lagging construction, coupled with an increased demand stretching back to the COVID-19 pandemic years.

"We have been trying hard to catch up, but with increased costs for supplies and labor to build, it has been tough," Lantz tells Realtor.com. "Many projects are built as rentals to spread this cost over years of ownership, where a similar project built for sale would either have to be extremely high priced, or the builder/developer would not make a satisfactory profit."

Yet, high-growth markets like Hartford, Rochester, NY, and Worcester, MA, are appealing to budget buyers because they offer relative affordability compared to their much pricier neighbors.

For example, the typical home in Hartford is projected to cost roughly $300,000 less than one in New York City or Boston next year.

"Greater Hartford offers a lot for the dollar, despite the rising prices," adds Lantz. The Connecticut metro also boasts great school systems, outdoor spaces ranging from beaches to ski resorts, and vibrant dining and nightlife scenes.

"We are one, two hours from Boston and New York City, and I do see people who commute a couple of days a week to those cities, working remote the other days," adds the agent.

Lantz, former president of the Greater Hartford Association of Realtors®, notes that rising home prices build equity for existing owners, but soaring monthly costs could negatively affect affordability in the metro by squeezing out lower-income, first-time buyers.

"The market is pricing some people out, but hopefully wage growth will help with that, and there are some great programs that give down payment assistance and forgivable grants to those whose income qualifies," says Lantz. "More importantly than that, we are hopeful to see the continuing trend of lowering interest rates on mortgages, which will help offset those higher home prices."

Pricey metros where buyers will pay top dollar

In absolute terms, homeowners in the nation’s most expensive housing market—San Jose, CA—are projected to pay the highest monthly housing costs at a staggering $8,322. Still, this marks a 2.4% decrease from last year.

The reason that amount is so high is that the median home price in San Jose, located in the heart of the San Francisco Bay Area, is projected to be $1.58 million in 2026, up less than 1% from 2025.

Housing payments in neighboring San Francisco are set to become 5.5% more affordable in the new year, yet the median monthly bill is expected to be $5,883—the second-highest in the U.S.—because the typical home in the increasingly in-demand "Golden City" is projected to cost $1.18 million next year.

In third place, Los Angeles is projected to see a 1.34% year-over-year drop in monthly payments, though the total will still come to $5,389.