Florida Home Prices Poised To Drop Even Further in 2026 After Years of Weakness

Home prices in Florida are expected to slide further next year after several years of weakness, according to new projections from the Realtor.com® 2026 national housing forecast.

Across Florida's eight largest metro areas, median sales prices for existing homes and condos are projected to fall an average of 1.9% in 2026, well below the 2.2% positive gain the forecast expects nationally.

Among those top Florida markets, only Miami is expected to eke out a positive gain in home prices next year, with projected price growth of 1.1%.

Meanwhile, markets on the Gulf Coast are expected to take the hardest price hit, with projected declines of 10.2% in Cape Coral, 8.9% in North Port, and 3.6% in Tampa.

The forecast follows several years of weakness in the Florida market, where statewide median listing prices were down 6% in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2023. The trend has been driven largely by falling condo prices, Realtor.com data shows.

"Florida has had a very different story than the national market over the past several years and a much different outlook," says Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner. "The main driver of price softness in Florida over the past several years is a growing supply of homes for sale at the same time that demand for those homes has weakened a bit."

The rising auxiliary costs of homeownership in Florida have been one major factor weighing on demand, including soaring insurance costs and steep homeowners association fees, especially in the condo segment.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has recently pushed for the elimination of property taxes on owner-occupied homes, in part as a solution to the rising costs of ownership in the state.

A recent Realtor.com analysis projected that eliminating all taxes on homeowners in Florida would immediately drive up the value of owner-occupied homes by 7% to 9%. But such a move would require a state constitutional amendment approved by voters, with no such ballot measure finalized yet.

Berner says that other factors affecting housing supply and demand in the Sunshine State include the recent high rate of new construction there and the decline of remote working, which has led to a slowdown in demand across the Sun Belt.

"These trends are likely to continue into 2026, though relief from high mortgage rates may help to get renters into the for-sale market as first-time homebuyers and boost demand for homes," he says. "At the same time, expect builders to respond to these price cues and slow down new-home construction in the state, which will prevent the imbalance between supply and demand from becoming more pronounced."

Condo weakness is leading Florida prices lower

Breaking out Florida's listing price trends into single-family homes versus condos, it becomes clear that weakness in the state's substantial condo market is the main driver of overall declines.

In October, median listing prices for condos in Florida were down a whopping 10.8% from the same month in 2023, while single-family home prices were down just 3.6%.

On a price-per-square-foot basis, which is a better proxy for underlying home values, condos dropped 9.3% over the two-year period, and single-family homes were down just 2.5%.

While those figures confirm prolonged weakness in both segments of the Florida real estate market, they show that the sharpest declines are concentrated in condos, perhaps due to new rules that have led to an uptick in HOA special assessment fees.

Still, home values in Florida remain far above where they stood just five years ago. On a square-foot basis, condo prices are up 26% from 2020, and single-family home prices are up 34%.

At the same time, median incomes in Florida have risen by an estimated 27% over the past five years. This means that condos are actually more affordable relative to incomes before the COVID-19 pandemic, at least based on their listing price. (Higher HOA fees may change that calculus significantly.)

Meanwhile, single-family homes remain less affordable to the typical buyer than they were before 2020, even after recent price declines in the state.

In 2025, the typical single-family home in Florida was listed for about 6 times the state's estimated median household income, based on a Realtor.com analysis. That's more than the 5.6 times the average ratio seen there from 2016 to 2019.

Meanwhile, condos in Florida used to list at 4.6 times the median income during the pre-pandemic period. For 2025, that ratio is expected to fall to about 4.4, meaning that condos in the state are now relatively more affordable.

For Florida homebuyers, however, the affordability gains from falling prices may be mostly or wholly wiped out by the soaring auxiliary costs of homeownership, a trend that may continue to weigh on buyer demand into 2026.