Mortgage Rates Just Rose Again—and We’re Not Over the Hump Yet

Mortgage rates rose yet again this week, hitting 7.79% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan in the week ending on Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac.

That’s a heady jump from last week’s rate of 7.63%, which was already at a high not seen since 2000. This is also the seventh straight week that rates have risen—and many experts anticipate that we aren’t over the hump yet. (Sorry.)

“Mortgage rates continued to climb toward 8%, resulting in the longest consecutive rise since the spring of 2022,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Rates have risen 2 full percentage points in 2023 alone and, as we head into Halloween, the impacts may scare potential homebuyers.”

Mortgage rates are not the only real estate metric that remains high. Home prices also refuse to budge, which could further slow a housing market that’s been in a state of suspended animation as of late.

We’ll examine what the latest real estate data means for buyers and sellers in this installment of “How’s the Housing Market This Week?”

Home prices continue to simmer

As mortgage rates stick to their upward climb, home prices remain north of affordable.

The median home listing price for the week ending Oct. 21 was 0.2% higher compared with the same period last year. In September, the national median listing price was $430,000.

“We have seen the nation’s median listing price grow or remain flat on an annual basis for the past 14 weeks,” says Realtor.com® economist Jiayi Xu in her analysis.

Beyond the weekly data, the median listing price has hovered within 1% of the prior year’s price for about six months. As a result, some buyers unable to overcome the mortgage rate and home price highs are simply sitting on the sidelines.

New listings remain in a lull

The ongoing lack of new listings continues to pile onto ongoing housing woes, with fresh listings down by 1.0% for the week ending Oct. 21 year over year.

“Since mid-2022, new listings have registered lower than prior-year levels, as the mortgage rate lock-in effect freezes homeowners with low-rate existing mortgages in place,” explains Xu.

Active inventory—a mix of new and old listings—is down as well for the week ending Oct. 21 by 2.0% compared with last year. This lack of listings looks even more stark when compared with pre-pandemic days, when there were 45.1% more homes for sale in the month of September.

Buyers looking for relief from the drumbeat of low inventory can turn to new construction, which “ticked up” during September, according to Xu. “Homebuyers may find a potential increase in new-home inventory in the coming months.”

Some homebuyers are still closing deals

Yet despite formidable financial hurdles, certain home shoppers are still charging ahead. And with limited housing stock to choose from, those buyers have to act fast when the right slice of real estate comes along.

In September, homes spent 48 days on the market on average. Yet for the week ending Oct. 21, the typical home spent one less day on the market compared with the same period last year.

“The gap in time on market narrowed over the last few months as buyers competed over fewer homes,” explains Xu.

The winter market may bring some relief

The lack of new listings will likely have a ripple effect on overall inventory in the winter homebuying season. While that’s grim news for the long term, buyers looking to close the deal before the end-of-the-year deep freeze may get a break.

“The usual seasonal buildup in inventory that makes this time of year favorable for buyers is underway,” says Xu.

Other buyers mightg want to put their homebuying plans on pause as nationwide rents shrink.

A smaller monthly rent check might “alleviate the sense of urgency among potential first-time homebuyers, affording them more time in the rental market to accumulate savings for their future homes,” concludes Xu.

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