U.S. Home Prices Rose in June—Paced by Chicago—Amid Inventory Squeeze

A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose on a month-over-month basis in June by 0.7%, but it was flat over the past year. All numbers are seasonally adjusted.

On a year-over-year basis, U.S. home prices were down 1.2% nationally.

Home prices grew the most on an annual basis in Chicago, Cleveland, and New York, according to the Case-Shiller report.

Despite an average 30-year mortgage rate of over 7%, buyer demand hasn’t dried up.

And a persistent lack of home listings has pushed up home prices, as buyers converge on a limited number of homes on the market. Bidding wars are back in some markets, while others are seeing an uptick in all-cash buying, as those purchasers avoid relatively high borrowing costs.

Key details: Several big office hubs posted the strongest home-price gains in the month of June.

Chicago, Cleveland and New York led the rankings as the three cities with the highest year-over-year price gains among the top 20 cities in June.

Homes in Chicago were up 4.2% in June as compared with the same month last year.

The West Coast continued to lag behind the rest of the country: Home prices fell in San Francisco and Seattle the most.

A separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency also showed home prices rising in June, up 0.3% from May. Home prices were the strongest in New England, according to the government’s data.

And over the last year, the FHFA index was up 3.1%. The agency also said that home prices rose 3% between the second quarters of 2022 and 2023.

Big picture: Home prices went up in June as the housing market continues to be hampered by its inventory woes. Homeowners who have no reason to sell hang on to their homes, and buyers converge on a limited number of home listings.

What S&P said: “Regional differences continue to be striking,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said.

“On a year-over-year basis, June’s three best-performing cities were Chicago (+4.2%), Cleveland (+4.1%), and New York (+3.4%),” he said, while “the worst performers continue to be in the Pacific and Mountain time zones.”

Lazzara also noted that prices rose in all 20 cities in June on a month-over-month basis.

Overall, home prices have held up amid a sharp rise in interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation. “We recognize that the market’s gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness, but the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results,” Lazzara added.

What are they saying? The Case-Shiller data reflects the housing market in June, which is “different” from today, Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement.

Rates are over 7% and home sales have fallen to the lowest level since 2010, which may push more buyers out of the market, she added. And given the “robust economy and low supply, don’t expect a major price correction, but it’s likely we’ll see modest year-over-year price declines in many markets this fall,” Sturtevant said.

Market reaction: U.S. stocks were up in early trading on Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose above 4.2%.