Government Shutdown Disrupts Housing Data—but Relief Is in Sight as Mortgage Rates Hold Steady

The federal government shutdown stretched past the one-week mark, interrupting data releases and likely delaying some home closings.

Mortgage lenders have received guidance from Fannie and Freddie on adaptations they can make to minimize disruption, which will help.

One bright spot, Bureau of Labor Statistics employees are being called back to produce the September inflation report. This data is necessary for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, and as a result, the Fed will have one additional data point before its next meeting.

Against this backdrop, the minutes from the last Fed meeting were released. While housing market softness was on the mind of some at the September meeting, my takeaway was that the minutes were a tad more hawkish than expected, underscoring the importance of getting that extra inflation data. 

Mortgage rates slipped back this week, marking a fifth week in their recent range and also five weeks below 6.5% so far in 2025. Mortgage rates were lower than they are now for just four weeks in 2024. Homeowners with higher rates who hesitated and missed that refinance opportunity may want to get in touch with a lender now.

Survey data showed that consumer attitudes toward homebuying were little changed in September. But notably, even as mortgage rates improved in the month, consumers were less likely to expect further improvements. 

A separate Realtor.com® survey on information sources tapped by consumers shows that a majority of Americans are embracing new tools for real estate insights and housing-related content, including AI and social media. Still, real estate agents came out on top when respondents were asked about sources that made them "smarter," sources considered accurate, and those worth the time spent using them.

Even as temperatures drop, some real estate markets continue to bring the heat, and they’re found in the Northeast and Midwest. Interestingly, the New York metropolitan area was the biggest major market mover in the past year, according to the Realtor.com September Hottest Housing Markets report. Digging deeper, however, reveals wide variation within the market. While many New Jersey suburbs are red-hot, Manhattan and Queens are quite cool.

Another Realtor.com report found that cash-sales remain high—comprising nearly 1 in 3 recent home sales—despite slipping slightly from a year ago. Cash sales are even more common at the very high and the very low ends of the price scale, accounting for a majority of home sales priced below $100,000 and above $2 million.

Weekly housing data showed a modest uptick in new seller interest this week, but growth remains lower than earlier in the year, prompting more modest active listing growth amid flat prices.

Finally, the Best Time To Buy nationwide is here: Oct. 12–18. Buyers this week can expect lower competition, notable savings on pricing, and more homes on the market than at the start of the year. Along with the national average, 21 of the 50 largest markets see peak buyer conditions this week.