Pending Home Sales Rise in November, but 2025 Market Remains on Track To Hit 30-Year Low

Pending home sales rose in November as mortgage rates eased, but the increase is likely not enough to prevent the 2025 housing market from hitting a new 30-year low in sales volume.

Signed contracts for existing homes rose 3.3% last month from October, will all four regions seeing an uptick, the National Association of Realtors® reported Monday. The November pending sales figure was up 2.6% from a year ago and represented the best month so far this year after seasonal adjustment.

"This recent momentum reflects the combined effects of easing mortgage rates and gradually improving supply," says Realtor.com® Senior Economic Research Analyst Hannah Jones. "Still, despite these tailwinds, the housing market remains in a low gear, with both buyer and seller activity subdued."

Pending sales usually precede closings by about one to two months, and the uptick in November came as mortgage rates dipped to a one-year low, averaging 6.24% for the month, according to Freddie Mac.

However, the November boost is unlikely to push December closings high enough for 2025 to exceed last year's full-year sales total, when existing-home sales of 4.06 million were the lowest on record since 1995.

In 2025 through November, home sales have totaled 3.714 million, slightly below the same period in 2024. December sales would have to jump 6.1% before seasonal adjustment to tie last year's figure and avoid setting a new three-decade low.

The grim signal follows three straight years of historically low home sales, with affordability constraints and economic uncertainty pushing many potential buyers to the sidelines.

However, affordability is improving incrementally as mortgage rates ease and wages grow faster than home prices, which is expected to drive an increase in home sales in 2026.

“Homebuyer momentum is building. The data shows the strongest performance of the year after accounting for seasonal factors, and the best performance in nearly three years, dating back to February 2023,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Yun has predicted that existing home sales will surge 14% next year, due largely to softer mortgage rates. The Realtor.com economic research team forecasts a more modest increase of 1.7%.

“Improving housing affordability—driven by lower mortgage rates and wage growth rising faster than home prices—is helping buyers test the market," says Yun. "More inventory choices compared to last year are also attracting more buyers to the market.”

Nationally, active listings in November totaled 1.072 million, up 13% from a year earlier, according to the Realtor.com monthly trends report.

But buyer activity remained soft as homes took longer to sell, with the typical home spending 64 days on the market, which was three days longer than a year ago.

Prices also eased, with the median asking price of $415,000 down 0.4% from November 2024. On a square-foot basis, accounting for the size of homes for sale, listing prices were down 0.9% annually, marking the third straight month of declines.

The slowdown was most pronounced in the South and West, while many Northeast and Midwest metros continued to see faster-than-normal sales due to tighter inventory.

"Despite the apparent uptick in pending sales activity in November, it is likely that the housing market will end 2025 with sales about at last year’s levels," says BrightMLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant. "Home buyers, sellers and real estate professionals, alike, are looking for a stronger 2026 housing market. But next year will be a transitioning market and not a turnaround market."