5 Swing State Metros Where Kamala Harris’ $25K Subsidy for First-Time Homebuyers Would Cover a 10% Down Payment

Vice President Kamala Harris’ proposal to provide $25,000 in down-payment assistance to first-time homebuyers has drawn polarized reactions, with some praising the plan as a way to level the playing field—and others arguing that it will drive home prices higher.

But just how much house will a $25,000 down payment buy? The answer, according to a new analysis from the Realtor.com® economic research team, depends greatly on what part of the country you’re in.

Assuming a buyer relied only on the proposed federal credit, without bringing any of their own cash to the table, a $25,000 subsidy would cover a 10% down payment on the median priced home in 16 U.S. metro areas, the study found.

Five of those metros are in the swing states that will be key for Harris as she faces Donald Trump in November: Scranton, PA; Pittsburgh, PA; Erie, PA; Lansing, MI; and Flint, MI. As well, the Youngstown, OH, metro area, which also makes the list, includes parts of Pennsylvania.

Of the 11 other metros where $25,000 covers a 10% down payment, eight are in states that are expected to vote for Trump in November, and three are within states that are solidly in the Harris camp.

Of course, the typical homebuyer will likely bring some of their own funds to a deal. Renters have a median net worth of about $10,000, according to the Federal Reserve, and many would be able to use some of their savings to supplement a federal down-payment credit.

As well, first-time buyers are more likely to be looking at homes on the lower end of the price spectrum, including smaller homes priced below the area median price. Still, the new study offers a window into where the proposed homebuyer credit would have the biggest impact—and, in turn, where it might be most attractive to voters.

"Though the proposed down-payment assistance could cover an entire down payment in many of the country's most affordable markets, most prospective buyers have some savings for a down payment already, and the boost could be just what they need to achieve homeownership sooner, even in a higher-priced market," says Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com.

"Opting for a large down payment can help a buyer reduce the size of their home loan, thereby minimizing interest payments, or can be used to purchase a slightly higher-priced home without increasing their loan size," she adds. "Either way, an influx of cash could help first-time buyers compete more effectively in today's high-priced market, despite having no existing home equity to leverage."

Notably, the areas where a $25,000 down payment credit would go the furthest for first-time buyers are concentrated in the Midwest. The three Rust Belt swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are considered crucial for Harris to win in order to reach the White House.

Many details of the Harris plan remain unclear, including who would qualify for the subsidies and how the funds would be paid out.

In an interview, Harris suggested the assistance would come as a tax credit. The Harris campaign has also said that the funds would be for first-time homebuyers who have paid their rent on time for at least two years.

Presumably, the credit would only be available to homebuyers who qualify for a mortgage. Buyers would still need to ensure that they are able to afford their monthly mortgage payments.