Delayed September Jobs Report Shows 119,000 New Hirings as ‘Stale’ Data Is Finally Released After Government Shutdown

The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, exceeding economists' expectations, even as summer payrolls were revised down, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that was released nearly seven weeks late due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate reached 4.4% in September, up from 4.3% in August, marking the highest level in nearly four years, according to the overdue release.

Realtor.com® senior economist Jake Krimmel notes that while the two-month-old report offers important information on the state of the economy at the time, "interpreting semi-stale labor market data won’t be straightforward."

The September employment figure was much higher than the 50,000 jobs that had been forecast ahead of the release, while wage growth stayed modest, rising just 0.2% from August. 

Hirings continued to trend up in health care, food services and bars, and social assistance, while job losses were common in transportation, warehousing, and the federal government, where employment declined by 3,000 in September and by 97,000 since January.

Notably, BLS revised the July employment number by 7,000, from roughly 79,000 jobs to 72,000. August's payroll was revised by an even bigger margin, dropping by 26,000 from the previously reported 22,000, meaning the economy actually lost 4,000 jobs that month.

Krimmel notes that the September report is the last official labor data the Federal Reserve will see before its December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, so its interpretation may matter more than the numbers themselves.

The BLS said it will not be releasing the October jobs report because the shutdown disrupted data collection. The November figures will be published Dec. 16, a week after the Fed policymakers' gathering.

"The report may function as something of a Rorschach test for a deeply divided Fed and for markets that had been predicting a December cut was slightly less likely than the FOMC standing pat," says Krimmel.

The Fed has a dual congressional mandate to keep inflation as close to 2% as possible to achieve price stability while promoting maximum employment.

Krimmel says that based on the latest jobs report, inflation hawks will point to still-solid payroll gains and wage growth running at nearly 4% annually as evidence that the Fed should avoid cutting again too soon after lowering the federal funds rate by a quarter-point in October.

Those in the opposite camp will argue that the unemployment rate is showing some troubling signs, edging toward 4.5% in September. Because the report was delayed by the 43-day government shutdown, the current jobless rate could be even higher.

What it means for the housing market

For housing heading into late 2025 and early 2026, today’s jobs numbers matter because they offer a glimpse into the future of both monetary policy and mortgage rates.

Krimmel explains that while November and December tend to be slower for transactions, buyers and sellers are already looking ahead to spring.

"A softer-but-steady jobs report slightly increases the odds of a December Fed cut, which could bring modest rate relief," he says. "Even small declines help buyers’ affordability and may ease the lock-in effect for sellers as market rates move closer to their existing mortgages."

Additionally, unemployment holding steady at 4.4% would be a welcome development for the housing market, signaling the underlying strength of the labor market.

"But the upward drift and downward revisions warrant attention," warns Krimmel.

If unemployment continues to edge up in the coming months, that could weigh on buyer confidence. On the other hand, if job growth firms up and inflation stays contained, wage gains could translate into real purchasing-power improvements, just as rates move lower.