Home Price Growth Accelerated in November Following Autumn Dip in Mortgage Rates

Annual home price growth accelerated in November for the first time in seven months, showing that prices remain responsive to mortgage rates, which dipped briefly last fall.

Nationwide, home prices grew 3.8% in November from a year earlier, more than the 3.6% gain seen in October, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index data released on Tuesday.

The index’s composite of the 20 largest metro areas posted a year-over-year increase of 4.3%, up from a 4.2% increase the previous month. New York City again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities, with a 7.3% increase in November, while Tampa, FL, recorded the lowest return, falling 0.4%.

The modest bump in home price growth followed mortgage relief in September, when average rates briefly dipped to two-year lows close to 6%. Rates have since increased to around 7%.

The stronger growth in November sales prices, which includes September and October on a three-month rolling basis, suggests that the market remains fairly responsive to changes in mortgage rates.

Still, the annual price growth seen in the latest Case-Shiller data remains weaker than pre-pandemic norms, and far below the feverish 20% gains reached during the buying frenzy of 2022.

“With the exception of pockets of above-trend performance, national home prices are trending below
historical averages,” says Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“Markets in New York City, Washington, DC, and Chicago are well above norms, with New York leading the way,” he adds. “However, markets out West and in once red-hot Florida are trending well below average growth. Tampa’s decline is the first annual drop for any market in over a year.”

Although the Case-Shiller index is reported with significant lag time, it is one of the most accurate measures of home values in the U.S., using repeat transactions to measure price changes while stripping out appreciation due solely to improvements or higher square footage.

Price growth is slowest in the South and West

While Tampa was the only city tracked by the index that saw an annual price decline, price growth in other markets in the South and West remained sluggish.

Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, and San Francisco all saw home prices grow less than 2% year over year in November.

Meanwhile, New York City, Chicago, and Washington, DC, saw the biggest annual price gains, with home values in those markets growing 7.3%, 6.2%, and 5.9% respectively.

“Regional variation in the housing market means that buyers across the country face vastly different market conditions,” says Realtor.com® senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones. “Markets in the Midwest and Northeast continued to see substantial demand, resulting in sustained price growth in November, while the South and West continued to soften.”

Returns for the Tampa market and the entire Southern region ranked in the bottom quartile of historical annual gains in data going back to 1988, according to Luke.

“Unsurprisingly, the Northeast was the fastest-growing region, averaging a 6.1% annual gain,” he says.

On a monthly basis, home prices fell slightly in Seattle and Tampa from October to November, after accounting for seasonal adjustments.

Prices rose on a monthly basis in the other 18 markets tracked by the index, led by Boston, where they increased 0.94%.